2026 midterms · prediction-market tracker · prices as of Oct 13, 2026
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Combined-outcome markets priced directly on each platform. Tap a bar for both.
Flip % is the chance the seat changes party. Conf 1–10 reflects traded volume. Spread is the Kalshi vs Polymarket gap.
| State | Seat | Status | Would flip to | Flip % | Tier | Spread | Conf | Links |
|---|
Only districts with a market on Kalshi or Polymarket. Several states redrew maps mid-decade; see Notes.
| District | Seat | Defender | Flipper | To | Flip % | Tier | Conf | Notes | Links |
|---|
Rates: Little passes that moves the deficit. Fed-independence fight intensifies with Democratic oversight; term premium stays bid, curve steeper.
Energy: Permitting reform and LNG fast-track stall. Remaining IRA credits survive. Executive keeps tariff and export-control power.
Tariffs: House votes to end IEEPA tariffs pass and die at the veto. The court case matters more than Congress.
Healthcare: ACA subsidy restoration becomes a must-pass fight; drug-pricing hearings return.
Financials: Deregulation stalls at the agencies; crypto market-structure stalls.
Defense: Topline roughly flat in real terms under a CR; no repeat of the reconciliation plus-up; shipbuilding and missile defense still funded.
Classic gridlock. Senate confirms nominees; House blocks legislation. Shutdown and CR risk highest here. Best case for gold, worst for defense names dependent on supplementals.
Defense: Senate pushes a higher topline, House Appropriations blocks it; a year-long CR freezes new starts.
Reconciliation 2.0: tax extenders, IRA credit repeal, crypto bill, permitting reform. Deficit widens, long end sells off.
Defense: A second reconciliation bill with another defense plus-up; $1T+ topline.
About this page. A personal tracker. Probabilities are prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, two prediction markets, pulled Oct 13, 2026 (16:03–16:40 UTC). Kalshi's public API returns cached snapshots, most last updated Sep 15–Oct 10; live site quotes differed by 1–4 points on some races. Averages, re-binned seat distributions, expected-seat figures and confidence scores are my own arithmetic on top of those prices.
Not advice. Nothing here is an offer, a recommendation or investment, legal or tax advice. Prediction-market prices reflect the views of participants on those venues, can move without notice, and are not a forecast. The scenario notes are opinions for discussion.
Method. Flip % is the non-holding party's win price. Expected seats use bucket midpoints (House: <195=190, 195–204=199.5, 205–214=209.5, 215–224=219.5, 225+=229; Senate: ≤47=46, 57+=58) against 220 R House seats and 53 R Senate seats today; Senate majority counted as 51 without the VP. Confidence 1–10 from combined traded volume.